Everyone’s Talking About the Fed — But They’re Missing This Part

The Fed is expected to cut rates next week—but don’t assume mortgage rates will follow. Learn why rate cuts don’t always mean cheaper home loans and what Denver buyers should really watch.

🏦 The Fed Is Cutting Rates Next Week… But Don’t Expect Mortgage Rates to Follow!

The end of October is shaping up to be big for the financial world: the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates again next week—a move that’s already 100% priced in by the market.

Naturally, many people hear “rate cut” and immediately think, “Great! Lower mortgage rates are coming.”
Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way.

💡 Why Fed Rate Cuts Don’t Equal Lower Mortgage Rates

While it sounds logical that a rate cut would push mortgage rates down, history tells a different story. In fact, mortgage rates often rise after the Fed cuts rates—a pattern we’ve seen play out multiple times over the past year.

Take September 2025, for example: mortgage rates spiked immediately after the Fed’s last cut. The same thing happened in September 2024. In both cases, the market had already anticipated the move long before it happened, and by the time the Fed acted, rates had already adjusted.

That’s because mortgage rates don’t wait for the Fed’s official decision—they move in real time, reacting to economic data, inflation trends, and investor expectation

📈 Markets Move First, the Fed Follows

By the time the Fed meets (they only do so eight times a year), investors have already placed their bets. The bond market—where mortgage rates are actually set—responds instantly to new information, while the Fed simply confirms what the market already knows.

In this case, the market’s been 100% certain of an October rate cut since early September, following weak job numbers and cooling inflation signals. Any benefit mortgage rates might’ve gained from this cut was likely priced in weeks ago.

🗣️ So What Could Move Mortgage Rates Next Week?

Words.
Specifically, the language Fed Chair Jerome Powell uses during the press conference.

If the Fed signals a more aggressive path of future cuts, rates could drift lower. But if Powell hints that this might be the last cut for a while—or expresses concern about inflation—mortgage rates could easily move higher again.

🏡 Bottom Line for Denver Homebuyers and Sellers

• Don’t wait on the Fed. Mortgage rates move based on expectations, not announcements.

• Keep an eye on the broader economic data—especially inflation and job reports.

• Work closely with your lender and agent (that’s us!) to watch daily rate trends, not just the headlines.

The Fed may be cutting rates, but the housing market plays by its own rules—and understanding that difference can save you thousands in your next move.